ABSTRACT

Export is an economy boaster. Analysis of factors affecting performance is aimed at understanding more fully the degree of effects and with a view to proffering solutions. In many instances, a careful analysis reveals the trend of such performance. This dissertation seeks to ascertain the performance trend of the selected non-oil products of cocoa, groundnut and palm oil from 1980 to 2018. Of significance would be the ascertainment of the financial contributions of each of the products to the total export values within the referenced period. The study also seeks to ascertain from statistical analysis, how foreign exchange rate, government expenditure, inflation and unit value index affect the export performance of these selected non-oil products. Moreover, it is important to note that the selection these non-oil products stems from the fact that each product represented the three former regions in Nigeria, namely, the Northern, Western and Eastern regions. Above all each of these products contributed financially to the foreign income and reserve of the country. Analytically, the study employed descriptive statistics, quadratic trend model and auto recession distributed Las model (ARDC) as they suit the characteristics of interest. The findings revealed that foreign exchange rate, government expenditure, unit index value affected the export performance of the non-oil products. Inflation had no significant impact on the performance of the non-oil products. In addition, the quadratic trend, model reveals that the selected non-oil products experienced the three different stages of the trend namely   acceleration,   stagnation   and deceleration   at different periods. Conclusively, on an average, the selected products experienced more of stagnation than acceleration. While in comparison, Cocoa took the lead, followed by Groundnut and Palm oil in terms of export sales volume.  From these findings, it is recommended that government expenditure, not only be increased but its disbursement be monitored to avoid partiality. That foreign exchange rate which Central Bank of Nigeria has the constitutional responsibility to manage should be given proper attention.  In addition, government and its agencies should control inflation towards single digit and improve the naira value to dollar, fulfill all promises made to exporters, create enabling environment and importantly invest on technology based agriculture. The take way from all these, is that there is still a total neglect of non-oil products in term, of not having adequate funding from the government among others. There is also laxity in terms of improving the foreign exchange value as prices of Nigeria exports are not competitive in the foreign markets.