ABSTRACT

This project work studies the total NEPA energy consumed by M.O.U.A.0 from 1996 — 1999. The ultimate aim is to design a mathematical model that could be used to obtain a reliable or dependable estimate of energy consumed. The method of simple descriptive time series analysis was 52a50raa1 effog.ts W. The trend was moving downwards, there was seasonal effects too. The trend and the se,asonal components were use for forecast.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title

Certification ii

Appreciation iii

Acknowledgment iv

Dedication V

Abstract vi

List of tables vii

List of graphs. viii

Table of contents ix

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 Introduction I

1.1 Background 1

1.2 Statement of problem 4

1.3 Rationale of study 4

Scope of work

Objectives

Literature review

1.7 Methodology 8

1.7.1 Data source/Limitations 8

1.7.2 Methods of analysis 8

1.8 Origination of work 11

1.9 Defmitions of concepts/terms 11

CHAPTER TWO

2.0 Justification of assumptions 14

2.1 Test for normality ' 14

2.2 Test for randomness 16

CHAPTER THREE

3.0 Estimation isolation of time series components in the data 18

3.1 Estimation and isolation of the trend 18

3.2 Estimation and isolation of seasonal components 21

3.3 Cyclical variation 27

3.3.1 Test for serial correlation in the residue 27

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0 Forecasting, summary, recommendation and conclusion 28

4.1 Forecasting . 28

4.2 Summary 30

4.3 Recommendation 31

4.4 Conclusion 31

Appendices

References