ABSTRACT

 The aim of this study is to construct a time series model which could be used to pie et reliable future rainfall value. The Box-Jenkins iterative niodel building Procedure was used to obtain the parameters of the identified model. 'ilie model estimation was (lOfle using the MINITAB software. The study \vhich was carried out in Umudike. covered the period of 2002-2008. The data used was collected from the National Root Crop Rescaich Institute Umudike (NRCRI). The result of the analysis showed among others that, the rai ii fall data contain a regular seasonal variation with a constant lren(l and an appropriate model SARIMA (1, 1, I) was identiled and ltted. Based on the forecast, farmers should take note of the period of rainy and dry seasons in order to enhance their agricultural productivity. Also road construction workers should make use of these seasons to know wheii to start construction. Those in aviation industry through those findings should know the best season to apply this ionic as this will reduce plane crash, due to bad weal her.