ABSTRACT

The broad objective of this study was to analyze the trend in rice production and imports in p Nigeria and identify the factors that influenced rice production and rice imports in Nigeria. The study covered 1980 -2013 periods. Secondary data were used for the study. The data were analyzed by the use of descriptive statistics and econometric methods. Findings revealed that between 1980 and 2013, a total of 60,111,000 thousand metric tons of rice was domestically produced in Nigeria. The mean quantity of rice production in Nigeria between 1980 and 2013 was 8,587,286 thousand metric tons while the mean change in rice production within the same year was 1,586,333 thousand metric tons. The growth rate of rice production varied from a minimum of -2.73 percent between the years 2000- 2004 to a maximum of 94.99 percent between the years 1985- 1989. The overall average growth rate of rice production between 1980 and 2013 was 31 percent. Similarly, between 1980 and 2013, a total of 39,763,500 thousand metric tons of rice was imported in Nigeria. The mean quantity of rice imports in Nigeria between 1980 and 2013 was 5,680,500 thousand metric tons per annum while the mean change in rice imports within the same year was 1,638,917 thousand metric tons per four years interval. The growth rate of rice imports in Nigeria between 1980 and 2013 was relatively higher than the growth rate in rice production in Nigeria within the same year. The growth trend of rice production and imports in Nigeria per annum within the period under study (instantaneous rates of growth) were 4.8% and 6.6% respectively and the rate of growth of rice production and imports in Nigeria over the study period under study (compound rates of growth) were 4.92% and 6.82% respectively. While it takes at most ten (10) years and six (6) months to double the rate of growth in the quantity imported of rice instantaneously based on the current trend or ten (10) years and three (3) months to double the compound rate of growth in the quantity imported XII of rice, it takes at least fourteen( 14) years and six (6) mohths to double the instantaneous rate of growth in the quantity of rice produced or at least fourteen(14) years and five (5) months to double the compound rate of growth in the quantity of rice produced. This suggests a high risk 0 in over-dependence on import without the cushioning effect of local production. There was a significant difference (t = 5.238***) in the mean quantity of rice production and imports within the period under review. There was a significant difference (t 2.021***) in the mean growth rate of quantity of rice production and imports within the period under review. Import quantity of rice, area harvested of rice, quantity of rice consumed, government capital investment in agriculture, value of rice imports, labour force in agriculture and trend variable determined the quantity of rice production in Nigeria within the reference period in the long-run. In the short run, rice production was determined by one year lag of quantity of rice import, area harvested of rice, raihfall, government capital investment on rice production, domestic price of rice, value of government loan to farmers, real exchange rate, labour force in agriculture and quantity of rice output. The rate of adjustment towards long — run equilibrium for rice production was fast. The study recommended that policies aimed at reducing rice imports in Nigeria should consider those significant price and non-price factors that determined rice imports in Nigeria in both short and long terms. Also policies aimed at increasing rice production in Nigeria should consider those significant price and non-price factors that determined rice production in Nigeria in both short and long terms. A restriction of rice imports through the use of import taxes, increased government support to domestic rice farmers through provision of credit and subsidies for rice farmers is advocated.