Buys-Ballot Estimates Of The Trend Curve And Seasonal Indices For Additive Model When Trend-Cycle Component Is Cubic
ABSTRACT
The
Buys-Ballot estimation procedure developed by Iwueze and Nwogu (2004) for time
series decomposition when trend-cycle component is linear and was later
extended to cases where trendcycle component is quadratic by Iwueze and Ohakwe
(2004) is been proposed to cubic trend-cycle component. The two alternative
methods (the Chain Base Estimate and Fixed Base Estimate) were considered and estimates
were derived for the additive model. Simulated examples were used to illustrate
the methods developed. Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Capitalization (N'
Billion) data for the period of 1985-1994 and Quarterly Gross Domestic Product
at Current Basic Prices (N' Billion) for Other Transport Services data for the
period of 1981-1992 were analyzed to further illustrate the application of the
proposed method in a real life time series data. The Buys-Ballot estimates (CBE
and FBE) were compared with Least Squares estimates and the Chain Base Estimate
were found to perform better in terms of forecasts. The modified
Diebold-Mariano test were further used to test for equality of the forecast
accuracy of the three models considered and the results revealed a significant
difference among the three fined models
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CHARLES, K (2023). Buys-Ballot Estimates Of The Trend Curve And Seasonal Indices For Additive Model When Trend-Cycle Component Is Cubic. Mouau.afribary.org: Retrieved Nov 17, 2024, from https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/buys-ballot-estimates-of-the-trend-curve-and-seasonal-indices-for-additive-model-when-trend-cycle-component-is-cubic-7-2
KELECHI, CHARLES. "Buys-Ballot Estimates Of The Trend Curve And Seasonal Indices For Additive Model When Trend-Cycle Component Is Cubic" Mouau.afribary.org. Mouau.afribary.org, 12 Jul. 2023, https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/buys-ballot-estimates-of-the-trend-curve-and-seasonal-indices-for-additive-model-when-trend-cycle-component-is-cubic-7-2. Accessed 17 Nov. 2024.
KELECHI, CHARLES. "Buys-Ballot Estimates Of The Trend Curve And Seasonal Indices For Additive Model When Trend-Cycle Component Is Cubic". Mouau.afribary.org, Mouau.afribary.org, 12 Jul. 2023. Web. 17 Nov. 2024. < https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/buys-ballot-estimates-of-the-trend-curve-and-seasonal-indices-for-additive-model-when-trend-cycle-component-is-cubic-7-2 >.
KELECHI, CHARLES. "Buys-Ballot Estimates Of The Trend Curve And Seasonal Indices For Additive Model When Trend-Cycle Component Is Cubic" Mouau.afribary.org (2023). Accessed 17 Nov. 2024. https://repository.mouau.edu.ng/work/view/buys-ballot-estimates-of-the-trend-curve-and-seasonal-indices-for-additive-model-when-trend-cycle-component-is-cubic-7-2