ABSTRACT

This work centered on autoregressive distributed lag model analysis ofthe macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in Nigeria. The data is ofsecondary form collected over the period (1990-2020). Test of normality of the variables was conducted using the Anderson Darling test off normally. The normality test result shows that all the macroeconomic variables were normally distributed except exchange rate. Test of stationarity of the series was carried out using Philips Perron test procedure which shows that the time series has unit root at 5% level of significant and all the variables were of different integrated order. The co-integration test was conducted using ARDL in comparing the impact of macroeconomic variables on economic growth, where R-square value of 0.964 that is 96.4% implies strong positive coefficient of determination which indicates that the model is adequate and the Durbin- Watson test value of 2.46 which indicates that the model is free from serial correlation since the DW is approximately 2. The ARDL model select ion result showed that the model 4 [ARDL (1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0)] with AIC value of -111890 is the best fit. It displayed the residual, actual and the fit plot. The result if the Pairewise granger causality test shows that gross fixed capital formation granger causes inflation which was found to granger causes exchange rate. Conclusively, this study shows that Nigeria needs rise in Gross Domestic products GDP, needs growth in export and import goods, needs rise in gross fixed capital formation rate, needs low infiation rate and desires high exchange rate. These macroeconomic determinants discussed in given good attention and capable oftaking Nigeria out from this undesirable economic recession to economic prosperity.