Time Series Analysis On The Cases Of Typhoid Fever: A Case Study Of Federal Medical Center (FMC) Umuahia:- Onokebhgbe Ehimen E

ABSTRACT

The main objective of this study is to construct a mathematical model which can be used to forecast dependable data for the future. The data for this study is a .. secondary one on the number of patients that report lo Federal Medical Center [F M CJ Umuahia who are sick of typhoid fever. The data is presented in monthly bases and covers a period of January 2001 to December 2006. The chi-square goodness-of -Iil test was used to test· the hypothesis that tiie data were drawn f rorn a normal population. The data were evaluated for constant variar.,:e using the Bartlett's test. Runs up and down was used to test for randomness. Fro tho original data it was observod tho graph that there was neither upward or Juwriwmd rnuvemenl which implies the presence of a co11staril trend, l11e gram.J mean was calculutoc.J anc.J use <.J ns t11c oslirnuto of the trend. The series where detrended, deseasonalizeu, autocorrelation and multiplicative models. The assumption of randomness was justified by subjecting the residuals [et] to serial correlation lest using