Time Series Analysis On Reported Treated Cases Of Malaria (Case Study Of Michael Okpara University Medical Unit.)

ABSTRACT

The data used for this study was collected from Michael Okpara University of Agriculture Umudike Medical Unit. The principal aim of this work is to find a suitable mathematical model that could be used to forecast a dependable future level of treated cases of malaria in Michael Okpara Medical Unit. The method of analysis of the data was time series analysis. MINITAB was employed to fit model that was capable of explaining some properties of the original data. The original data was made stationary. Thereafter, based on the diagnostic tools the ACF, PACF, the appropriate AR]IMA model was identified. The identified model was used for forecasting for the year 2010. Finally, based on the result the analysis conclusions were drawn and recommendations were made which can be of great benefits to government and health officers.