Time Series Analysis On Non-Oil Exports In Nigeria (2008- 2012) :- Inegbu Eziokwu I

ABSTRACT

This study is geared at fitting a time series model for forecasting the Nigerian non-oil export products using the Box and Jenkins time series method. The time series model class is the Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) class of model. The data collected for this project is made of the monthly value of the Nigeria non-oil export from January 2008 to December 2012. According to the Box-Jenkins model building methods, the data undergo an empirical driven methodology of systematically identifying, estimating, diagnosing, and forecasting the time series. The time series analysis result shows the plot of the trend, ACF's PACF's of the data collected the model generated from the Nigerian non-oil export data shows that an ARIMA (1, I, 0) is an adequate model and the residuals of the model for diagnostic supported the claim. Finally the end of forecast was also minimal of about 0. 03 which also suggests that the model is adequate.