Time Series Analysis Of Quarterly Recorded Cases. Of Treated Hiv/Aids Infected Patients In Upth, Rivers State.:- Oriala Ezekiel

ABSTRACT This research work intended to construct a mathematical model which could be used to forecast the future values of treated cases of HIV/AIDS infected patients in the University of Port-Harcourt Teaching Hospital (UPTH). To achieve the aforementioned objective, quarterly data collected from the University of Port-Harcourt Teaching Hospital from 2005 - 2009 were subjected to statistical analysis. The results of all the tests carried out in this work showed that the data were normally distributed, have constant variance and were not completely random. The plots of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation were used to analyse the data and it was observed that they were stationary at ARIMA (1,0,0) which is the adequate model. Finally, conclusions were drawn based on the results of the study and the adequate model used to predict for future values was assessed using summary statistics like MSE. Also, recommendations were offered.