Time Series Analysis Of Non-Oil Export Trade Of Nigeria (2001-2005)

ABSTRACT

This work studies the non-oil export trade between the years 2001-2005. The ultimate objectives of this work was to construct a mathematical models that could be used to predict a dependable future non-oil export trade. The data for the study was collected from the Na0onal Bureau of statistics. It is a 5 years data, recorded monthly. Some assumptions were made about the data after conducting with appreciate tests showed that it is normal and has a constant variance but is not randomly distributed. After decomposing the data and plotting, the corresponding graphs, the graph of the seasonal component showed that the non-oil export trade has its highest value on the month of August which suggests that August may be the best season for the export. I used simple descriptive analysis to analyze the data and multiplicative model to decompose the components and after which the forecast of the year 2005 was obtain and the error of the forecast was seen to be 0.3987.