Time Series Analysis Of Injured Persons In Road Accident In Abia State (2006-2010).

ABSTRACT

 The desire to carry this research work was aroused by the high rate of death and injuries resulting from road accident. The objective of the research work is to determine whether the number of injured persons in road accident follows a particular trend or is influenced by season, to establish a model for it and to forcast future occurrence. A secondary data was collected from the federal road safety commission Abia State on the number of injured persons on monthly basis from 2006 to 2010. Box jenkins approach was used in analysis using a statistical software called menitab. ARIMA (111) was found to be the suitable model for the • series after carrying out some test for confirmation. The equation of the model was estimated to be Yt= -0.3l01y --'0:6176e..1. A 24 month forecast was made and it was observed that the expected number of injured persons within the 24 months will be between 16 and 19 persons per month. It was recommended among other things, that the federal road safety commission should organize an awareness program to educate drivers on driving rules to help reduce rate of road accident in the state.