Time Series Analysis Of Infant Mortality Rate In Abia State (A Case Study Of Federal Medical Center Umuahia), Abia State (2002 - 2010)

ABSTRACT

This time series analysis examined infant mortality rate in federal medical center Umuahia (Queen Elizabeth) and the data analyzed were on monthly basis for nine (9) years (2002 — 2010). The Box and Jenkins time series method of analysis was used to outline steps to model identification, and model fitting. The original data showed non — seasonal variation from the original free hand plot of the value, also the plot of (ac.f), (pac.f) of the original data showed no specific pattern with little or no trend. From the plot, of the (ac.f) and (pac.f) of non — seasonal difference of order one (1), an appropriate model ARIMA (2,1,1) was identified and fitted. Also model adequacy was checked using chi — square method and it was observed that the model was adequate.