Time Series Analysis Of Import Commodity Price Index In Nigeria. (2005-2014)

ABSTRACT

This study examined the import commodity price index iii Nigeria. The source of data used in

this study is secondary data obtained from National Bureau of Statistics from 2005-2014.The

statistical tools employed were the time series analysis. The Box-Jenkins procedures were used

to model the import commodity price index. From the result of the analysis, the series was found

to be stationary at the first order differencing usiflg the time plot, ACF and PACF. Hence, the

model is ARIMA [1,1,1,] was identified, and was found to be adequate using the model

adequacy test. From the result of the forecast, it was observed that the level of import commodity

price index will be on a high rate. In conclusion, it was recommended that Nigerians should

encourage the use of Nigeria made product.