Time Series Analysis Of External Reserves Of Nigeria

ABSTRACT

This study examined the Nigerian External Reserves over a period of eleven years(2004 - 2014). The data were collected from CBN statistical bulletin. The time series analysis technique was used in analyzing the data. The study showed that the quadratic trend curve best fitted the data. On the basis of the results of this study, we concluded that the Nigerian External Reserves has been fluctuating over the year under study. The Monthly Nigeria External Reserves is usually higher during the first, second ,third, fourth, seventh, eight, and ninth months of each year with a rise of about US$40.71, US$24.88, US$46.13, US$27.30, US$23.10, US$49.98, US$25.28 above average. The Monthly Nigeria External Reserves is not stable. At some times, the Monthly Nigeria External Reserves appreciated and thereafter it depreciated. The Monthly Nigeria External Reserves is usually lower during the fifth, sixth, tenth, eleventh and twelfth months of each year with a drop of about US$27.19, US$42.48, US$21.09, US$73.88 and US$72.75 below average. The plot of the periodic mean and the periodic standard deviation showed that the additive model fitted the research data. Between the first month of 2015 and the twelfth of 2015, the Monthly Nigeria External Reserves would range between US$32.46 and US$23.82.