Intervention Analysis Of Nigeria’s Inflation Rate:- Ire, Kalu I.

ABSTRACT

This research work sought to estimate and assess the nature ofthe impact c1 1 tUllui'M? Economic Empowerment Development Strategy (NEEDS) on Nigeria Tnfb.tinn rat.. using intervention analysis of total monthly Inflation rate (for all items) cm. imm period 2003 to 2013. The data were obtained from the official website ofthe Central Bank ofNigeria. The data suggested a logarithm transformation to stabilize the variance. Empirical results from the study indicate that the pre-intervention period could best be modeled with an AR(1) process based on which the full intervention model was obtained. The intervention event actually had effect on inflation rate, it reduced the inflation rate but the duration however was found to be abrupt and temporal. Its corresponding long term effect 4.01 is not quite different from its corresponding impact parameter of4.52 which was found to be statistically significant. The results show that the overall intervention model was statistically significant.ABSTRACT

This research work sought to estimate and assess the nature ofthe impact c1 1 tUllui'M? Economic Empowerment Development Strategy (NEEDS) on Nigeria Tnfb.tinn rat.. using intervention analysis of total monthly Inflation rate (for all items) cm. imm period 2003 to 2013. The data were obtained from the official website ofthe Central Bank ofNigeria. The data suggested a logarithm transformation to stabilize the variance. Empirical results from the study indicate that the pre-intervention period could best be modeled with an AR(1) process based on which the full intervention model was obtained. The intervention event actually had effect on inflation rate, it reduced the inflation rate but the duration however was found to be abrupt and temporal. Its corresponding long term effect 4.01 is not quite different from its corresponding impact parameter of4.52 which was found to be statistically significant. The results show that the overall intervention model was statistically significant.