A Time Series Analysis Of The Reported Armed Robbery Cases In Umuahia Metropolis:- Ifenkwem ezeikpe .O. E

ABSTRACT

In this project, we applied a time series model for analysis on Mon比ly Reported Armed Robbery Cases in Umuahia Municipal from the year (2000-2006). To certify aims and objectives which motivated this work, we also applied the same method to breakdown the data available so as to obtain a better result for forecast. However, certain assumptions were gotten in the data and thereby justified through appropriate means like the test for normality, constant variance, and randomness etc. Faced with the problem of obtaining future events as regards this work (Reported Armed Robbery Cases), a probability model was fitted using the statistical software package (MINITAB) hence, generating a forecast. The ARIMA (p,d,q). This signified an Autoregressive process of order one AR (1). More so, recommendations were made both to students who may want to be made to embark on project works that may be made to the Federal Police Force towards fighting Crimes especially, Robbery.