ABSTRACT

This study examined the factors that shape fertility preferences in Nigeria using data derived from the 2013 and 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS). Cross tabulations were used to examine the relationship between the dependent variables (desire for more children and the desire to limit childbearing) and the independent variables used in the study. Logistic regression analysis was also conducted to estimate the net effect of selected background characteristic on fertility preference. The results indicate that 70% of currently married women aged 15-49 years want to have another child in 2013 compared to 67% of such women in 2018. This implied a 4.3% decline in the proportion of these women between 2013 and 2018.  Also, the percentage of currently married women in Nigeria who want to limit childbearing increased from 19 in 2013 to 24 in 2018.  The percentage of currently married men who want to have another child dropped from 83% in 2013 to 77% in 2018.  This implied a 7.2% decline for men compared to a 4.3% decline for women during the same period. The 2018 NDHS indicates that approximately, 90% of births were wanted at the time they occurred, 8% were mistimed, while 2 % were not wanted.   First-order births are more likely to be mistimed, while the likelihood of unwanted births increases as the mother’s age increases. Evidence also reveals a rising trend in the proportion of mistimed births and of unwanted births, which highlights growing unmet need for birth spacing and limitation of childbearing among women. Among both currently married women and currently married men, there is evidence of increasing desire to limit childbearing. Married women are more likely than married men to desire to limit childbearing, probably because they have a better understanding of the risks associated with childbearing, especially higher-order births.   Desire to limit childbearing varies markedly by background characteristics.  Important predictors of ‘desire to limit childbearing” among currently married women include geopolitical zone of residence, number of living children a woman already has and the economic status of the woman (proxied by the wealth quintile of the household).Assessment of the extent to which women were able to achieve their fertility preferences revealed that women’s implementation of their fertility intentions in Nigeria contributed to a 3.6% reduction in total fertility rate between 2013 and 2018.   On balance, the observed transition in fertility preferences of women and men in Nigeria points to a gradual shift to smaller family size norms in the country.