ABSTRACT

The study assessed the impact of sesame exports on Nigeria economic growth (1980 – 2018).  Specifically, the study estimated the trends of sesame seed production and exports in Nigeria; estimated the rates of growth of sesame seed production and exports and thereafter forecast the doubling time in the growth rate of sesame production and export in Nigeria; estimated the level of acceleration, deceleration or stagnation in the growth processes of sesame exports in Nigeria;  estimated the determinants of sesame output and export in Nigeria; evaluated the impact of sesame export on economic growth and also determined the existence of Granger causality between sesame export and economic growth in Nigeria all within 1980 - 2018. The study made use of time series data sourced from the United State Development Agency (USDA), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), National Bureau of Statistics and Central Bank (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multiple regression models. The results showed that, the mean quantity of sesame output in Nigeria was 111,960 metric tons while 55230.00 metric tons of sesame seeds were exported within the study period. The annual mean value for sesame export stood at $48,531,282 (N17.3 Billion). The compound growth rates of sesame seed output and exports were 6.65% and 7.74% respectively. There was acceleration in the growth rates of sesame production and exports during the study period. The estimated determinants of sesame production in Nigeria in the long–run were export quantity of sesame seed, area harvested of sesame, quantity of sesame consumed, government capital investment in agriculture, labour force in agriculture and trend variable as they significantly influenced sesame production at 1%, 1%, 1%, 5%, 1%, 1%, 1% and 1% alpha levels respectively. In the short run, sesame production responded positively to the one year lag of quantity of sesame export, the one year lag of area harvested of sesame, rainfall, government capital investment on sesame production (proxied by Government capital investment in Agriculture), domestic price of sesame, value of government loan to farmers, real exchange rate, labour force in agriculture and quantity of sesame output at 1%, 1%, 1%, 10%, 1%, 1%, 5%, and 10% significant levels respectively. Quantity of sesame production (1%), quantity consumed of sesame (5%), world price of sesame (10%), nominal exchange rate (1%), domestic price of sesame (1%) and population (5%) were the significant variables that determined sesame exports in Nigeria within the period of investigation in the long run. In the short run, sesame export was determined by the one year lag of quantity of sesame output, area harvested of sesame, world price of sesame, government capital investment on sesame production, the one year lag of quantity consumed of sesame, nominal exchange rate, domestic price of sesame, population and external reserves all at 1% significant level except quantity consumed of sesame that positively influenced sesame export at 10% level. The ECM indicated a feedback of about 78.4% of the previous year’s disequilibrium from long-run elasticity of the factors influencing sesame production. Also, the ECM indicated a feedback of about 74.4% of the previous year’s disequilibrium from long-run elasticity of the factors affecting sesame export. The results also confirmed the positive and significant impact of sesame export on economic growth in Nigeria. The result also showed that sesame export growth causes economic growth and vice versa. Since there is a positive correlation between sesame seed export and economic growth in Nigeria, it is therefore recommended that government should put in place policies to stimulate the sesame sub-sector through the encouragement of farmers to form cooperatives and financial aid given to them for accelerated productivity