ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of climate change on food crop production with a view to achieving sustainable food production in Nigeria from 1970 to 2017. This study employed time series data of a period of 47 years, obtained from various sources spanning from 1970-2017. The sources were: National Bureau of Statistics review, National Bureau of Statistics summary and annual abstract of statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria’s economic and financial review, an online database maintained by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and other relevant publications. ). Descriptive statistics (graph) was used to show the trend of crop production and climatic parameters. The exponential functional form was estimated to confirm trend in the output of rice, maize and cassava. Ordinary least square regression model was used to estimate the effect of climate and other variables on crop production. Effect of price variation on the production of rice, maize and cassava was analysed using the four functional forms of linear, exponential, semilog and Cob Douglas and the lead equation selected based on certain econometric (high R² value, F- ratio, number of significant variables) economic and statistical criteria. Granger causality test was used to determine the effect of price variation on crop production and quadratic equation in time variable was fitted to confirm the existence of acceleration, deceleration or stagnation in rice, maize and cassava production. Based on the findings of this study, there was variation in temperature and rainfall during the study period which affected the output of crops in the study area. Also, an increase in price of produce (rice, maize and cassava), rainfall, temperature population density and time trend increases the output of rice, maize and cassava.  From the result of the estimated quadratic equation in time trend variable for rice, maize and cassava production during the periods under study, the coefficient of β2 for quantity of rice produce (0.0011), maize produced (0.0009) and cassava produced (0.0941) were positively signed at 1%, 5% and 1% level of probability respectively, implying a confirmation of acceleration in the output of rice, maize and cassava during the period (1970 -2017). Therefore, there is need for governmental and non-governmental organizations to make available policies and mitigating measures such as conservation of resources, development and deployment of alternative energy sources, excessive deforestation and band on the use of toxic chemicals as well as massive campaign on greenhouse gas emission activities in the study area. More so, this research work suggests the need for programmes and seminars to intimate farmers with modern adaptation strategies especially the use of irrigation facilities to supplement rainfall in the study area.