System Dynamics Modeling of Green House Gases in Nigeria

ABSTRACT

This study examined a system dynamic model of greenhouse gases in Nigeria. The objectives of the study were to simulate the effects of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions for Nigeria using Vensim software 9.2, compare and evaluate the results gotten from the Vensim to simulate and predict the effects of this gases over an extended period of time. Secondary data on the emission of greenhouse gases was obtained from Data World Bank from 1990-2021. Stock Flow Diagram (SFD) was used for the mathematical modeling of the structure. The simulation result showed that the emission of methane will increase to 20 billion tones by 2030, nitrous oxide increased to 1×10³¹ by 2030, carbon dioxide increased to 1×10³⁸ at 2002. The deforestation emission showed that the carbon in the environment will increase to 1×10³⁸. The findings shows that the emission of greenhouse gases is on the increase annually and if nothing is done, it will have an adverse effect on the environment and health care of the population. It was therefore recommended that renewable energy should be encouraged

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title page                                                                                                                                i

Declaration                                                                                                                              ii

Certification                                                                                                                            iii

Dedication                                                                                                                              iv

Acknowledgment                                                                                                                   v

Table of Contents                                                                                                                   vi

Lists of Tables                                                                                                                         ix

List of Figures                                                                                                                         x

Abstract                                                                                                                                  xi

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1              Background of the Study                                                                                           1

1.2              Statement of the Problem                                                                                           2

1.3              Aim and Objectives                                                                                                    3

1.4              Scope of the Work                                                                                                      3

1.5              Justification of the Work                                                                                            3

CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1       Conceptual Frame Work                                                                                             5

2.1.1    Greenhouse emission in Nigeria                                                                                  5

2.1.2   Types of greenhouse gases                                                                                           7

2.2       Theoretical Frame Work                                                                                             11

2.2.1   System dynamic modeling                                                                                           11                                                                          

2.3       Empirical Frame Work                                                                                                11       2.4            Summary of review of related            literature                                                                     13                                                                                                                                           

CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1       Concept of system dynamics                                                                                      16

3.2       System Conceptualisation                                                                                           17       

3.3       Model structure                                                                                                           17

3.3.1    Formulation of casual loop diagram                                                                           18

3.3.2    Formulation of stock flow diagram                                                                            18

3.3.3    Mathematical Formulation                                                                                          19

CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1       Trend of methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide over time                                 23

4.2       Factors affecting greenhouse emissions                                                                      25

4.3      Effect of greenhouse gases on mortality rate                                                              28

4.4      Simulation and prediction of greenhouse gases                                                           32

4.5       Simulation and prediction of the factors affecting greenhouse emissions                 34

4.6       Sensitivity analysis                                                                                                      35

CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1       Conclusion                                                                                                                  41

5.2       Recommendation                                                                                                        42

REFERENCES                                                                                                                    43

APPENDICES                                                                                                                      50

LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1:        Summary of review of literatures                                                                   12

LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. 3.1:           Steps in achieving a model                                                                             17

Fig. 3.2:           Causal loop diagram                                                                                       18

Fig. 3.3:           Stock flow diagram                                                                                        19

Fig. 4.1:           Variation of methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide over time               23

Fig. 4.2:           Effect of solid fuel over time                                                                         25

Fig. 4.3:           Effect of solid fuel over time                                                                         25

Fig. 4.4:           Effect of transportation over time                                                                  26

Fig. 4.6:           Effect of mortality rate against methane emission over time                         28

Fig. 4.7:           Effect of mortality against carbon dioxide emission over time                      29

Fig. 4.8:           Effect of mortality rate and nitrous oxide emission over time                       30

Fig 4.9:            Amount of deforestation over time                                                                31

Fig 4.10:          Simulation of methane emission                                                                     33

Fig 4.11:          Simulation of nitrous oxide emission from 1990 to 2030                               33

Fig 4.12:          Simulation of carbon dioxide emission from 1990 to 2030                            33

Fig 4.13:          Simulation of transportation from 1990 to 2030                                            35

Fig 4.14           Simulation of deforestation emission from 1990 to 2030                              35

Fig 4.15           Simulation of fossil fuel emission from 1990 to 2030                                    35

Fig 4.16           Emission of methane against time                                                                  36

Fig 4.17           Emission of nitrous oxide against time                                                           37

Fig 4.18           Emission of carbon dioxide against time                                                        38

Fig 4.19           Emission of solid fuel against time                                                                 39