ABSTACT

The aim of this project is to construct a mathematical model for the rainfall data of Umudike which could be used to predict reliable and dependable future rainfall values. Specifically, it was intended to estimate and isolate the components of time series data namely: Trend, Seasonal Variation and Irregular components present in the data using the descriptive time series approach. This estimation and isolation was done based on the original data. The study covered the period of 1996-2000 while 2001 data was used to compare the predicted values. The data was collected from the Meterology department of the National Root Crops Research Institute Umudike. That is to say that only secondary data was used. The results of the analysis showed amongst others that: All the components of time series were present in the data.  On the average, the rainfall of Umudike within the period under consideration is 190.8mm with a standard deviation of 146.70mm. Based on the results the following recommendations are made. The ministry of natural resources and Federal Office of Statistics should publish statistics of rainfall distribution for the whole Local Government in Nigeria. The information should be published in daily newspaper on statistics year books of Federal Office of Statistics. This will provide the farmers in any particular locality with the information that will enable them to grow crops at certain period of the year.

TABLES OF CONTENTS

TITTLE PAGE

DEDICATION ii

CERFIFICATION iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv

ABSTRACT V

TABLE OF CONTENT vi

LIST OF TABLE vii

LIST OF FIGURES viii

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1

1.2 TYPES OF RAINFALL 2

13 MEASUREMENT OF RAINFALL 3

1.4 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES 4

1.5 THE SCOPE OF THE STUDY 5

1.6 LITERATURE REVIEW 6

CHAPTER2: RESEARCH DATA 7

2.2 DEFINITION OF TERMS 8

2.3 ESTIMATION OF TREND 9

2.4 ESTIMATION OF THE SEASONAL VARIATION 10

2.5 ESTIMATION OF CYCLIC-IRREGULAR VARIATION 11

2.6 ESTIMATE OF CYCLIC VARIATION 12

2.7 ESTIMATE OF IRREGULAR VARIATION 13

CHAPTER 3: ANALYSIS

3.1 MEASUREMENT OF TREND AND DETRENDED SERIES 14

3.2 OMEASUREMENT OF SEASONAL EFFECT AND

DESEASONALIZATION

3.3 MEASUREMENT OF CYCLIC-IRREGULAR

3.4 MEASUREMENT OF CYCLIC VARIATION

3.5 MEASUREMENT OF IRREGULAR VARIATION

CHAPTER 4:

4.1 FORECASTING

4.2 SUMMARY! CONCLUSION

4.3 REMARK

4.4 RECOMMENDATION

REFERENCE