ABSTRACT

This work studies reported malaria cases in Umudike (1995 — 1999). The ultimate objective is to design a mathematical model which could be used to predict future malaria case. The method of simple descriptive time series analysis was employed using the multiplicative model. The result of the analysis showed a linear trend. There were seasonal effects but the cyclical components were assumed absent. The trend and seasonal components were used to forecast future values [for 2000].

TABLE OF CONTENT

Title I

Appreciation ii

Acknowledgement iii

Dedication iv

List of tables v

List of graphs vi

CHAPTER ONE (INTRODUCTION) I

1.1 Background of study 1 - 3

1.2 Statement of problem 3 - 4

1.3 Rationale of study 4 - 5

1.4 Objectives 5-6

1.5 Scope of work 6

1.6 Methodology 6 - 11

1.7 Literature review 11 - 12

1.8 Organization of work 13

1.9 Defmition of concepts/terms 13 - 14

CHAPTER TWO 15

2.0 Evaluation of data 15

2.1 Test for normality 15

2.2 Test for randomness

2.3 Test for constant variance

CHAPTER THREE

3.0 Estimation and isolation of time series components in the data 21

3.1 Estimation of trend 21 - 24

3.2 Estimation and isolation of the seasonal component 24 - 29

3.3 Irregular components 29 - 33

CHAPTER FOUR 34

4.0 Forecasting, Recommendation, Summary and Conclusion 34

4.1 Forecasting 34 - 36

4.2 Summary 36-37

4.3 Recommendation 38

4.4 Conclusion 38 - 39

Appendix 39-40