ABSTRACT

A Health is Wealth "as the saying goes. The WHO, UNICEF, EPI, NPI and the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OF NIGERIAN knowing the usefulness of a healthy nation mapped out strategies to improve the health of the populace. In this regard, immunization was made free all infants, knowing that a health baby today is as healthy adult tomorrow and an increased manpower. Olokoro autonomous Cornmuni.ty is privilege tQ have four halth centres to carry out this immuñiztion programme. Since three of the centres are new used. Only the data from one centre was used. Data was collected from 1995 -2000 on yearly basis. Time series analysis was used to decompose the data into trend, seasonal indices cyclical and irregular components. The multiplicative modes was adopted. From the analysis the rate of immunization is on the increase. The seasohal variation happens to have its highest positive influence on September and its gre.test negative influence on December. The combined influence of the cyclical V and irregular components (defrenentded - deseasonal series) were very much pronounced and the forecast it was seen that immunization rate would be on increase in the year 2001.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

Title page

Dedication ii

Acknowledgement iii-iv

Certification •v

Table of contents vi-vii

Abstract Viii

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of study 1-3

1.2 Statement of problem 3-4

1 .3 Rationale of study 4

1.4 Objective of study 4

1.5 Scope of study 5

1.6 Literature review

1.7 Methodology 8

1.7.1 Date sources and limitation 8-9

1.7.2 Method of Analysis - 9-13

1.8 Organization of Work 13

1.9 Definition of concepts 13-16

CHAPTER TWO

2.0 JUSTIFICATION OF ASSUMPTIONS • 17

2.1 Test for normality of the original data 17-18

2.2 Test for constant variance of the original data 20-2 1

CHAPTER THREE

3.0 ESTIMATION AND ISOLATION OF

TIME SERIES COMPONENT IN'THE DATA, XT. 22

3.1 Estimation and Isolation of the trend existing in the data 22-24

3.2 Estimation and Isolation of the seasonal components in

the data 25-26

3.3 The cyclical - Irregular Component 26-29

3.4 The Cyclical Component 30-32

3.5.1 The irregular Component 33-34

3.5.2 Justification of Assumption of Zero Mean 35

CHAPTER FOUR

FORCAST, SUMMARY,

RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION

4.1 Forecasting 36-37

4.2 Summary 38-39

4.3 Recommendations and conclusion 39-41

4.4 Appendices 42-53

Reference