ABSTRACT

Thus study was carried out to analyze thc incidence of diabetes mellitus in Abia State from 1995 to 99. The data was coc';.cd froi.n records of Nine (9) d!fierent general hospitals in Abia State. The aim t is study is to construct a niaWematical model, which could he used to dcsc effectively the form of the iiicidence of the diabetes mellitus and provide rcl;dc future levels of the disease. The descriptive (irne series approach was uSed fl this work and the multiplicative model was applied. The result of the a;alysis indicates that the trend was constant about the median, which implies !at for the period of five (5) years observed, the number of reported cases of din':;ctes was on the average of about 72 cases per month. There were seasonal and cyclical effects, trend and seasonal index were used to forecast for the year 200c).

TITLE PAGE .

DEDICATiON .ii

ABSTRACT iii

CERTIFICATION iv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .

TABLE OF CONTENTS .vi

LiST OF TABLES vii

LIST OF FIGURES viii

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .1

1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY 1-2

1.2 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM 3

1.3 RATIONALE OF STUDY 4

1.4 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES 4

1.5 SCOPEQESTUDY 4

I .6 LITERATURE REVIEW 5-6

1.7 METHOI)OLOGY:DA'I'A SOURCE AND LIMITATION.6-1 I

1.8 ORGANJSATION OF WORK 11

(.9 DEF1NJflON OF CONCEPTS 11-12

CHPTER 2: DATA EVALUATION 13

2.! 'lES'!' FOR NORMALITY 13-14

2.2 I3ARTLETT'S TEST FOR CONSTAN VARIANCE 15-16

CI IAP'FER 3: ES'I]MA'I'ION AND ISOLATION OF 'II IF 'liME SERIES

COMIONENTS 17

3.1 ESTIMATION AND ISOLA]:ION OF TI IF TREND 17-18

3.2 ESTIMATION ANI) ISOLATION OF TI IF SEASONAL

COMIONEN'I' 19-20

3.3 FSI1MATION ANI) ISOLA'IiON UI' 'II IF

CYCLICAL COMPONENT 21-22

3.4 IRREGULAR COMPON ENT .23

3.4.1 JUSTIFICTION OF TilE ASSUMP'l'ION OF ZERO MEAN

ABOUT TI IE IRREGULAR COMPONEN1' 23-25

CHAPTER 4: FORECASTING.SUMMARY,RECOMMENDATION,AND

CONCLUSION

4. I FORECASTING .26-27

4.2 SUMMARY 27-2X

4.3 RI'X'OMM ENDA'I'ION 2

4.4 CONCLUSION

BIB LOG RA P H Y

APPEN 1)ICES