ABSTRACT

The primary aim of this study is to construct a mathematical model for the savings and time deposit at Union Bank Nigeria Plc which could be predict reliable and dependable future savings and time deposits values. The components of time series, trend, seasonal effect, cyclical effect and irregular effect were estimated and isolated. The study covered the period of 1994 to 1991. Data were collected form Union Bank Nigeria Plc Headquarters at No. 40 Marina Stallion Plaza Lagos State Nigeria. The result of the analysis showed amongst others that: (a) The data was from a normal population (b) All the compdnents of time series were presented in the data (c) The average monthly savings and time deposits at Union Bank Nigeria Plc (Headquarters and all the 258 Branches) as N274.4 x 10' with a standard deviation of 31.7 From the results, it was suggested that bankers should give out huge amount of loans only during the period of May to September and less amount during the period of October to April. It was concluded that, within the limits of analytical error, there would be reduced incidence of distressed banks. If bankers and relevant government agencies can adhere to the advice provided based on the forcast values of 2000.

TABLE OF CONTENT

Title

Certification ii

Dedication iii

Acknowledgement iv

Abstract V

Table of Contents vi

List of tables and figure Vii

CHAPTER 1 Introduction

1.1 Background of study

1 .2 Statement of problem

1 .3 Rationale for study

1.4 Objectives

1.5 Scope of study

1 .6 Methodology

1 .7 Definition of concepts

CHAPTER 2

Literature Review

Justification of some Assumptions

Test for normality of the original data

Test for Randomness of the original data

CHAPTER 3 Estimation and Isolation of the components of

the time series

.1 Trend

3.2 Seasonal variation

3.3 Cyclical variation - 4.

3.4 Irregular variation

CHAPTER 4 Forecasting, Summary and Conclusion

4.1 Forecasting

4.2 Test for error randomness .3 '-

4.3 Summary

4.4 Recommendation 3

4.5 Conclusion L

Reference

Appendices.