ABSTRACT

In this work of Time Series Analysis on the Reported Criminal cases in Lagos State (1992-1996) was discussed. The ultimate Objective is to get a suitable model which would be used to forecast crime in Nigeria. Specific objectives are to find trend and seasonality. In the Result, We were able to find out that: (i) Components on Time series were present in the data. (ii) The Rate of crime is on the increase. (iii) The season that had the lowest crime Rate is the 3^rd Quarter (July, August, September) and the season that had the highest crime rate was the 4th Quarter (oct., Nov., Dec.) From the Results, we suggest that problem of combat of crime should go down to families, small firms, parasatals and government, this combat should be to have sanity in every walks of life. Also, that the law enforcement agencies should not be left at the mercy of the criminal minded people and the law enforcement agencies should be equipped with more sophisticated weapons which should be used to combat crime and not to be used for collecting bribe and stealing. With these and more recommendations made in this work, We hope that this mess which has eaten into the fabrics of our society will be eradicated.

TITLE

CERTIFICATION ii

DEDICATION iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv

ABSTRACT v

TABLE OF CONTENTS vi

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF FIGURES

CHARTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 AIMS & OBJECTIVES 3

1.2 LITERATURE REVIEW 4

C HAPTE2

2.0 METHODOLOGY & JUSTIFICATION OF ASSUMPTIONS

2.1 DATA COLLECTION 7

2.2.0 METHOD OF ANALYSIS 7

2.2.1 DEFINITION OF CONCEPTS 10

2.2.2 PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED 11

2.3.0 JUSTIFICATION OF ASSUMPTIONS 11

2.3.1 TEST FOR NORMALITY OF ORIGINAL DATA .11

2.3.2 TEST FOR RANDOMNESS OF ORIGINAL DATA 12

2.3.3 EXAMINATION OF THE VARIANCES OF THE ORIGINAL DATA .. 12

CHAPTER 3: ESTIMATION AND ISOLATION OF TIME SERIES

COMPONENTS OF THE ORIGINAL DATA

3.1.0 MEASUREMENTOFTREND 13

3.2.0 DETRENDING 15

3.3.0 MEASUREMENT OF SEASONAL VARIATION 16

34.0 DESEASONALIZATION 17

3.4.1 DETRENDED-DESEASONALIZATION (CYCLICAL - IRREGULAR

COMPONENTS) 18

3.5.0 MEASUREMENT OF CYCLICAL VARIATION 19

3.6.0 MEASUREMENT OF IRREGULAR VARIATION 20

CHAPTER 4: FORECASTING, SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND

RECOMMENDATION.

4.1.0 OBSERVATION AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS .. .21

4.1.1 TREND 21

4.1.2 SEASONAL INDEX 21

4.1.3 CYCLIC-IRREGULAR 22

4.2.0 FORECASTING 22

4.3.0 SUMMARY 23

4.4.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 23 -27

BIBLIGRAPHY