ABSTRACT

This study examined the scenarios of Nigeria energy consumption per capita using hybrid factor decomposition and system dynamics to aid in the forecast of oil consumption per capita (OCPC) and related indices. The objectives included the development of the hybrid methodology of factor decomposition method modified by system dynamics and its application for projecting Nigeria’s oil consumption per capita up to 2040. Three factors were used for the factor decomposition comprising economic activity, technological progress, and structure of energy consumption. The contribution of technological progress, economic activity, and structure of energy consumption were investigated on Nigeria’s OCPC using factor decomposition, while projections were made by carefully configuring a causal loop diagram. The system dynamics model, developed in VENSIM comprised stocks, flows, and converters. Ten stocks were used in the architecture, and in this arrangement, the projected OCPC, OCPC at base case, change in OCPC at time, T, OCPC at time, T, alpha effect, beta effect, gamma effect, alpha at time, T, beta at time, T, and gamma at time, T were selected. Three flows were also included in the model to represent different scenarios in values of alpha, beta, and gamma. Also, nine converters, labelled as ‘variables’ in VENSIM environment have been included in the model and included population, GDP, energy consumption per oil consumption, OCPC (labelled as alpha), energy consumption per capita (labelled as beta), ratio of oil consumption on general energy consumption (labelled as gamma), change in alpha, change in beta, and change in gamma, respectively. Using this arrangement, and three what-if scenarios, projections of OCPC were made up to 2040. From the results of an increasing OCPC growth in the first scenario, Nigeria’s OCPC would increase at 61.31 % per year during 2018–2025, and 35.17 % between the period 2025 and 2028.The results further indicates that, Nigeria’s OCPC can hit values of 978688 GJ, 2864742 GJ, 6626213 GJ and 8746523 in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively.