ABSTRACT

This study analyzed the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on agricultural growth in Nigeria. The study covered the period (1970-2018). The study made use of secondary data obtained from various issues of CBN, NBS and FAOSTAT (1970-2018). Data obtained were analyzed using descriptive statistics such as graphs, means, standard deviation, maximum and minimum; as well as such econometric tools as growth model, quadratic trend model, Ordinary Least Square (OLS) multiple regression technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality tests. Unit root test of the stationarity properties of the time series was done using ADF test approach while Co-integration among the variables was established using the Johansen System Co-integration Test. Findings showed that agricultural growth decreased in both the Pre-SAP and SAP periods. The coefficients of the time trend variable for agricultural growth in these periods were negative and statistically significant at 5% level. However, in the Post-SAP period agricultural growth showed a positive and statistically significant relationship with the time trend variable at 5% level of significance. For the entire period (1970- 2018), the coefficients of the time trend variable for agricultural growth rate was negative and statistically significant at 1% level thus indicating a decrease in agricultural growth overtime. Agricultural growth had a compound growth rate of -0.499%, -11.13%, 2.942% and -2.469% in the Pre-SAP period, SAP period, Post-SAP period and the entire period per annum respectively. Agricultural growth exhibited deceleration in the Pre-SAP and SAP periods, but exhibited an acceleration in the Post-SAP period. Overall, agricultural growth exhibited deceleration in growth between 1970 and 2018. Foreign direct investment in agriculture (FDIA_t), Domestic Credit loan to agriculture (CLA_t), real exchange rate (EXR_t), Government capital expenditure to agriculture (GCEA_t) and Interest rate on loans (INTR_t) were the significant variables that determined agricultural growth in Nigeria between 1970 and 2018. The Vector Error Correction (VEC) model showed that agricultural growth was affected positively by the value of foreign direct investment in agriculture, total domestic credit loans to agriculture and agricultural import tariff and was affected negatively by real exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate in the long run. In the short run, agricultural growth responded positively to changes in the one–year lag of the value of foreign direct investment in agriculture, total domestic credit loans to agriculture, government capital expenditure on agriculture and agricultural import tariff while real exchange rate and unemployment rate negatively affected agricultural growth. The Granger causality test shows that agricultural sector growth was preceded by government capital expenditure, foreign direct investment in agriculture and total domestic investment in agriculture. The study recommends that policies of government that encourage foreign direct investment inflow into the Country and participation of domestic investors in agricultural investments should be strengthened to ensure sustainable growth in the agricultural sector.