ABSTRACT

This work investigated the impact of the agricultural sector on the economic growth of Nigeria, between 1981 to 2012. Secondary data were collected over the period under study from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and Food and Agricultural Organization (FAQ). Among the objectives was to describe the trend of agricultural sector performance; and to determine the effect of this performance on the economic growth of the country. A regression model was fitted to estimate the impact of agricultural GDP and direct investment in agriculture on the total GDP of the country. The Durbin-Watson statistic was used to test for autocorrelation between the errors of the variables. The double log functional form was chosen as the lead equation based on economic and statistical criteria. The results show that the Durbin-Watson statistic was 1.072, indicating that there was a positive autocorrelation between the errors of the variables. The R2value showed that agricultural output and direct investment in agriculture accounted for about 65% of variations in the county's total GDP over the period. The coefficients of agricultural output and direct investment were positive and significant at 5%. Also the trend shows that both agricultural sector output and total GDP have been increasing within the period studied; while the coefficient of time (T) which was positive indicated a positive effect on total GDP. Among the recommendations was the integration of an export policy targeted towards the agricultural sector, into the current Agricultural Transformation Agenda of the federal government.